State of the Mets: April

State of the New York Mets
March Record: 0-3
April Record: 15-11
Record entering May: 15-14
Games Behind in NL East: 4.5
Games Behind NL Wild Card: 0.5

The New York Mets had an interesting plan for the 2024 season.

Although their primary goal is to make the postseason, another major goal for them is to evaluate their current nucleus of players and discover which ones are worth trying to build around. This was reflected in their offseason activity, bringing in several players looking to prove themselves while not making any particularly huge splashes. (Those splashes are likely to return this coming offseason.)

With numerous breakout candidates, both from the farm system and offseason acquisitions, as well as Pete Alonso playing for a long-term deal, the Mets are banking on development, upsides, and incentives to win games, a strange combination that has led to an equally strange team. This has led to wildly varying results in the early going, but the goal of making the playoffs is still a realistic possibility, as the Mets are just a half-game back of the third wild card spot.

The year got off to an inauspicious start, as New York was swept at home by the Milwaukee Brewers and nearly swept by the Detroit Tigers before rallying late for their first win. The Mets then went on a heater and won five consecutive series, which included upsets over the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers on the road, the two favorites in the Senior Circuit. They then stumbled, dropping three-game sets to middling teams in the San Francisco Giants and St. Louis Cardinals, just barely avoiding a sweep in the latter series.

These weird results have come from a concoction of hot streaks, underperformances, and the general nature of the team's construction.

The position players have delivered both timely contributions and costly mistakes. Alonso overcame a slow start at the dish by winning Player of the Week from April 8-14; he has pounded eight homers and registered a 128 wRC+. Brandon Nimmo is second on the team with 0.6 fWAR and boasts a .359 on-base percentage, and Starling Marte has four homers, six stolen bases, and a 123 wRC+ despite missing a few games on the bereavement list.

One of the biggest surprises for the team has been the performance of DJ Stewart. A placeholder for J.D. Martinez as the team's designated hitter, Stewart has done a hefty amount of damage to baseballs; despite a meager batting average of .208, he's shown fantastic plate discipline with a .377 on-base percentage and has slugged .472 with four home runs. His 147 wRC+ is even higher than Alonso's, and he has a 0.4 fWAR from just 69 plate appearances. Even with Martinez back, the Mets have liked what they saw from Stewart and will likely keep him around as a bench piece.

Unfortunately, there are quite a few players dragging the lineup down. Jeff McNeil is hitting only .247, with not nearly enough power to compensate. Brett Baty has cooled off considerably and has just a .319 slugging percentage, although he has been holding his own defensively. Harrison Bader is one of the best defensive players in the league, but his inability to take a pitch has severely limited his offensive production; he has a microscopic 2.3% walk rate while striking out 20.9% of the time. Francisco Lindor currently leads the team with 0.8 fWAR, but he had to recover from a truly miserable start to the season where he was batting below .100; he has since improved his average to .197 and hit five homers, but the awful start to the year is still severely weighing down his numbers. Finally, the less said about Joey Wendle, the better.

The bullpen has been a notable strength of the team, with Reed Garrett winning five games in relief with just a 0.57 ERA. Adam Ottavino, Jorge Lopez, and Brooks Raley have also looked great, with Raley expected to return from injury in the near future. Ottavino notably has struck out almost half of the batters he's faced, and has 18 punchouts against just one walk in 10 innings pitched. Finally, Edwin Diaz has returned from injury and continues to rack up impressive strikeout totals; while he did have a notable hiccup on Monday, his presence alone as the team's closer makes the Mets' bullpen significantly stronger. While there was a weak link in Michael Tonkin, he has since been DFA'd.

New York's bullpen has helped compensate for a Jekyll-and-Hyde starting rotation full of reclamation projects; this has seen very mixed results, especially due to the injury bug. Luis Severino and Sean Manaea have been dependable, especially Severino; the 30-year-old righty took a no-hitter into the eighth inning on Monday, has struck out 21.7% of the batters he's faced, and has just a 7.7% walk rate, indicating he can reach his ace-caliber potential again if he can stay healthy. However, the Mets badly miss Kodai Senga atop the rotation, while Tylor Megill is also injured; Jose Quintana and Jose Butto have shown upside, but haven't been consistent. Finally, Adrian Houser has been an unmitigated disaster, allowing at least five runs in three of his five starts.

Overall, the Mets are still in contention for a playoff spot, but need help in a few areas, mainly in the rotation. Fortunately, Senga should be back by the end of May, barring any setbacks, while the arrival of J.D. Martinez should help the lineup attain greater consistency in the long run.

This season is expected to have a massive impact on the Mets' future, and so far, they have gotten off to a fairly solid start. But as the going gets tough, they will need to show what they're truly made of.